- Bernstein projected a BTC target of $50,000 for a Harris victory and $90,000 if Trump wins.
- Beyond the short-term noise, BTC has still seen positive growth in previous elections.
Bitcoin could fetch “$90,000 or $50,000” depending on the outcome of the US election, according to analysis…
D-day of the US elections has arrived, and the short-term impact of their result on Bitcoin (BTC) it could be big.
According to Bernstein’s latest outlook, a Harris victory could push BTC to $50,000, while Trump’s victory could bring it back to a range between $80,000 and $90,000.
The research and brokerage firm cited Harris’ relatively hawkish stance as the reason for BTC’s $50,000 target.
But if Trump emerges victorious, analysts predict that BTC could reach a new ATH, citing the former president’s pro-crypto stance.
BTC Electoral Price Targets
Amberdata, a blockchain analytics company, and asset manager Bitwise, echoed the same projection, albeit with slightly different goals.
According to Amberdata analysts, there could be a price swing of $6,000 to $8,000 depending on who wins the US elections.
Part of his report read,
“Therefore, the main price points are $60,000 (a drop from Kamala’s win) or a $75,000/$77,000 Trump win that takes the place straight to the ATHs and then THROUGH them, while the “Electoral enthusiasm exceeds the peak observed last week.”
This was consistent with the recent action of hedge funds for potential bullish results while hedging likely wild BTC price swings.
Source: Bitwise
Based on BTC’s sensitivity to Trump’s chances on Polymarket, Bitwise analysts found that BTC could rise by 10% if Trump wins. Conversely, BTC could fall by almost 10% if Harris wins.
That said, at press time, Deribit data showed that options traders were pricing in a 21% chance of BTC hitting $80,000 by the end of November.
Source: Déribit
This wasn’t an exaggeration given that as of November 4, Trump was still in the lead among most election models and prediction sites, according to the latest data from Galaxy Digital.
Source: Digital Galaxy
Moving away from short-term US election noise, BTC’s long-term impact has been consistently positive over the past three election cycles, with Bernstein predicting $200,000 by 2025.
Sharing her thoughts on the matter, Maria Carola, CEO of crypto exchange StealthEX, told AMBCrypto that a likely positive scenario could happen after the elections. She said,
“The statistics show an interesting trend: after each election, there has been impressive growth. After the 2016 election, the price rose as high as $1,110, and in 2020, Bitcoin set an all-time high, surpassing $40,000.
Source: Bitwise
However, she warned that short-term volatility could increase if the results were contested.
“BTC is unlikely to see an increase in volatility before the election, but volatility could increase after the US presidential election, especially if the results are controversial.”
