Crypto markets are closely watching key U.S. economic data this week to gauge the health of the domestic economy. As the end of the year approaches, critical labor market reports – closely watched by the Federal Reserve – are on the calendar.
Given the potential impact on portfolios, traders may adjust their strategies based on these upcoming events.
ISM Manufacturing
The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release ISM Manufacturing data for November on Monday, December 2, marking the first business day of the month. This index, also called the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), provides a monthly snapshot of U.S. economic activity. It stems from a survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing companies across the country and is widely considered a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy.
The ISM manufacturing index follows weak purchasing managers’ surveys in the euro zone, where companies have reduced their workforce for four consecutive months. The euro zone composite PMI fell to 48.1 in November from 50.0 in October, indicating a contraction. Similarly, British surveys unexpectedly showed the economy slipping into contraction for the first time in more than a year, driven by concerns about rising employment taxes and duties. higher export customs duties.
Following this data, the euro fell to a 23-month low of $1.0336. Market attention will now turn to the United States, where the previous ISM manufacturing index was 46.5, with a consensus forecast of 47.5 for November. If a similar slowdown occurs in the United States, weakening the dollar (USD), investors could turn to Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies to protect against economic uncertainty.
JOLTS job offers
On Tuesday, December 3, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for October. The publication will provide data on the evolution of the number of job offers in October as well as the number of layoffs and departures.
The data provides valuable insight into the dynamics of supply and demand in the labor market, a key factor affecting wages and inflation. Looking back, job openings in the United States have been steadily declining since surpassing 12 million in March 2022. This suggests a steady easing of labor market conditions.
In August 2024, however, the downward trend stopped as the number of job openings increased to 8.4 million from 7.7 million in July. September saw 7.44 million job openings. It’s worth noting that the state of the labor market is a key factor for Fed officials when setting policy. Today, the median forecast is a slight increase to 7.49 million in October as the effects of the hurricane and strikes continue to fade.
Change of non-agricultural employment ADP
The ADP Employment Change, published by Automatic Data Processing Inc., measures changes in private sector employment in the United States. An increase in this indicator generally suggests increased consumer spending and supports economic growth. As a result, a high reading is generally bullish, while a low reading is considered bearish.
Wednesday’s ADP employment change report is seen as an early indicator ahead of Friday’s official employment data. After last month’s modest numbers, analysts are closely watching for signs of a slowdown in the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could boost markets on hopes of Federal Reserve easing, while a stronger-than-expected result could trigger short-term volatility as traders adjust their downside expectations rates.
Initial Unemployment Claims
On Thursday, December 5, weekly unemployment claims will also highlight the health of the American labor market. Previous initial data on jobless claims stood at 213,000 for the week ending November 23. The median forecast is 215,000 for last week.
At the same time, weekly jobless claims have fallen steadily in recent weeks after reaching their highest level in October in more than a year. Nonetheless, the trend shows that even as initial jobless claims in the United States are decreasing, continuing jobless claims are increasing. This reflects an environment in which employers try to retain their employees as long as possible. However, employees who lose their jobs have difficulty finding a new one.
US Jobs Report
The November employment report is due Friday, December 6. He is expected to summarize last month’s U.S. economic labor market data. Economists expect the November jobs report to show an increase in payrolls of more than 250,000 people. 33,000 Boeing workers returned from a strike and returned to work at Boeing suppliers after Hurricane Milton.
Friday’s data will come after core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices in October failed to beat expectations, consistent with the Fed allowing an extension of its rate-cutting cycle. interest next month.
“Friday’s US jobs report will be the key data release next week ahead of the Fed’s next decision on December 18,” Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.
Prior to this US economic data, BTC is trading at $96,516 at the time of writing, a modest increase of 0.15% since Monday’s session opened.
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