Bitcoin: $178,000 potential by 2025?
The price temperature of Bitcoin (BPT), a key market indicator, was 3.2 degrees at press time – an early warning signal for significant price action to come.
Historically, BPT levels from 6 to 8 have marked critical thresholds for parabolic rallies. Popular analyst Axel Adler suggests that if Bitcoin reaches a BPT of 8, its price could reach $178,000 per BTC by 2025.
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This projection is contingent on strong demand in the spot market as long-term holders continue to accumulate and reduce available supply.
BPT’s predictive accuracy, combined with increased on-chain activity, signals Bitcoin’s potential for exponential growth.
For investors, BPT highlights not only price dynamics, but also the strength of market fundamentals. As a result, Bitcoin appears to be an attractive opportunity ahead of the next cycle peak.
BPT is a key signal that, combined with other indicators such as network activity and investor sentiment, can provide a clearer view of market direction.
Currently, with the BPT at 3.2 degrees, we are still in the early stages of a potentially bullish phase. This leaves plenty of room for growth as more investors recognize the growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin.
A post-halving supply shock is in play
The 2024 halving reduced the BTC issuance rate to just 3.125 BTC per block, marking a sharp decline in new supply.
Historically, this scarcity effect becomes evident 12 to 18 months after the halving, as demand intensifies while supply dries up.
Source: Glassnode
The data highlights a consistent trend: years following the halving, such as 2013, 2017, and 2021, saw the price of BTC reach new all-time highs as circulating supply plateaued.
In 2024-2025, as circulating supply approaches its hard cap of 21 million, this supply squeeze is poised to amplify price dynamics, especially as demand from institutional buyers at cash continues to increase.
Institutional investors and the Bitcoin ETF effect
Institutional adoption is poised to redefine Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2025, with BTC ETFs acting as a key catalyst.
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in major markets has unlocked significant capital inflows, providing institutions with a regulated and accessible way to invest in Bitcoin.
In previous cycles, institutional interest from companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy propelled the price of Bitcoin to new highs. However, ETFs bring unprecedented liquidity, potentially attracting billions in assets under management.
As past bull markets have shown, institutional buying can trigger sustained rallies by boosting market confidence and absorbing supply.
This wave of capital could propel Bitcoin to record levels, cementing its status as a dominant asset class.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Bitcoin Accumulation
On-chain measurements of BTC reveal a strong accumulation trend, with illiquid supply reaching an all-time high of 14.8 million, or 75% of circulating supply.
This is a 30-day increase of 185,000 BTC, the second largest accumulation spurt in 2024, underscoring the dominance of long-term holders.
“Illiquid supply” represents BTC held in wallets with no sales history, meaning reduced availability for trading. Historically, such investor behavior precedes significant price increases as growing shortages put pressure on the market.
With diminishing supply available to meet growing demand, these metrics highlight bullish momentum heading into 2025, suggesting the accumulation phase could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next explosive rally.
Macroeconomic tailwinds and global adoption
The macroeconomic landscape is increasingly favorable to Bitcoin. Recent regulatory clarity in the United States, coupled with global initiatives to adopt Bitcoin, demonstrates growing mainstream acceptance.
Russian President Vladimir Putin notably hinted at the potential integration of Bitcoin into the BRICS economic framework, which could strengthen its role in international trade.
Amid geopolitical tensions, the borderless and decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes it an attractive hedge against traditional financial systems.
Read Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024-25
As nations and institutions explore alternatives to the US dollar, Bitcoin’s position as a global censorship-resistant asset strengthens.
These developments highlight its resilience and potential for significant growth as the world grapples with changing economic power dynamics.
