According to data from Dune Analytics, Polygon-based Polymarket saw a substantial portion of its trading volume in 2024 (88%) come from bets tied to the outcome of the US election.
The U.S. election has dominated activity on blockchain prediction platforms like Polymarket, which has seen more than $650 million in transactions this year. Nearly half of that volume occurred in July alone, as traders placed large bets on candidates like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris becoming president in November.
Richard Chen, former general partner at 1confirmation, noted that Dune data shows that markets labeled “2024 Presidential Election Winner” and “Democratic Candidate” account for 50% of the platform’s trading volume.
Election-related bets have outpaced bets on other events, such as the approval of a Bitcoin (BTC) cash exchange-traded fund in January and even the Paris Olympics this month.
Beyond non-election events, interest in Polygon’s betting service continued to be felt throughout the year, with volume spikes unrelated to the US presidential election being recorded in January, May, June and August.
Although Polymarket has performed well this year, the question remains whether it will be able to maintain its momentum in the absence of elections. Chen believes that crypto whales and the platform’s current momentum will continue to generate sufficient volume.
Polymarket: Harris ahead of Trump
Users who bet on the largest prediction market backed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to beat former President Donald Trump in the election.
As crypto.news reported, Harris eclipsed Trump’s lead shortly after the Republican candidate survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. Harris had a 51% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 47%, with Polymarket users placing a cumulative $642 million in bets on the election outcome.
