A popular crypto analyst believes that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently mirroring the giant rally in the Japanese stock market about four decades ago.
Pseudonymous analyst TechDev shares charts with his 467,400 followers on social media platform X that compare BTC’s performance since 2010 with the performance of the Nikkei 225, a price-weighted index that tracks 225 blue-chip companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, between the 1950s and 2000s.
Charts from TechDev suggest that Bitcoin could surpass $760,000 between 2028 and 2029 before experiencing a multi-year bear market.
The top-ranked crypto asset by market cap is trading at $59,621 at the time of writing.
The analyst also shares a chart with a line for the price of Bitcoin and a line between the Chinese 10-year bond (CN10Y) and the M2SL, the seasonally adjusted measure of the money supply in the United States.
From the trader’s chart, it seems to suggest that an expansion of CN10Y against M2SL would trigger big Bitcoin rallies.
Last month, TechDev noted in a newsletter that it was optimistic about the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market.
“It is clear that fear is extreme in the market. The last two weeks have been filled with pessimistic comments from the pessimists – on a retest at $48,000, the level they said they would never reach the last time they announced pessimism at $25,000.
This is exactly what I like to see. The fact that this has happened at a time when global macroeconomic conditions are trending upwards makes this nothing more than two weeks of deafening noise to me. More like the last six months.
This is usually the case in all speculative markets, but the last two years have reflected this phenomenon more than ever before in the cryptocurrency market: the price does not go up until X gets scared. This was the case at $15,000 after the FTX crash, at $20,000 after the regional banks failed, at $38,000 after the ETF crash, and now.
What you will also remember is how abruptly sentiment can change in a matter of weeks. This is expected to happen again. Meanwhile, the global cycle continues to point upwards.
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Image generated: Midjourney
