As US Election Day casts its shadow, BTC is on the brink of chaos and the possibility of a new all-time high for Bitcoin seems very real.
Traders are on red alert, with options markets hinting at a sharp 10% move – a cool $7,000 price change – as election drama plays out between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Donald Trump. President Kamala Harris. It is a cocktail of political and economic storms. Here’s what you need to know about the options market’s impact on Bitcoin’s all-time high.
Bitcoin at a record high? Read the tea leaves of the option market
In an interview with Trustnodes, Nick Forster, founder of on-chain options DeFi protocol Derive.xyz, shed some light on the situation:
“There is a 1 in 3 chance that BTC will see a move greater than 10% on Election Day, with a more volatile scenario of a 20% move with a 5% probability.” – Nick Forster, CEO of Derive.xyz
I don’t know about you, but I’ve had the Polymarket and Kalshi betting odds open on my laptop all week. According to Forster, it appears many people are doing the same, as his numbers underscore the market’s anticipation of a significant price move tied to the election results.
In options trading, a measure known as term structure indicates that short-term implied volatility is higher than long-term, highlighting market expectations of event-driven swings.
Election Day Drama: Trump vs. Harris (an all-time high for Bitcoin?)
Election Day, against a backdrop of Fed rate cuts, possible jailing of Trump and Hunter Biden, economic uncertainty and Hitler accusations, promises to be anything but predictable.
Polls suggest a close race, with Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan emerging as key battleground states. At this point, only six states will decide the election.
Betting markets add another layer of opaque intrigue. Most predict a landslide victory for Trump, while others say Kalshi and Polymarket are biased. This uncertainty fuels Bitcoin’s potential volatility as traders grapple with the implications of either outcome.
As the election result teeters, a new Bitcoin record is at stake: BTC’s reaction is as unpredictable as the vote itself. Currently, Bitcoin .cwp-coin-chart path svg { trait: ; line width: ; }
Price
Trading volume in 24 hours
Last price movement over 7 days
is trading at $72,000, up 1%, and a Trump victory could send BTC higher, riding the wave of its crypto-friendly vibe. But make no mistake; Some of this may already be priced into the current price.
At the same time, a Harris victory could push the market into a revaluation, although how far that shift will go is anyone’s guess.
Rep. Tom Emmer, a strong crypto advocate in Congress, believes that #cryptocurrency regulations are inevitable, regardless of who wins the next election.
Speaking at the Messar Mainnet conference, Emmer said digital asset legislation would likely advance in… pic.twitter.com/1JTAnD8HOA
– 99Bitcoins (@99BitcoinsHQ) October 17, 2024
Beyond Election Day, Bitcoin’s implications depend on broader political and economic policies. Both Trump and Harris bring different potential impacts. Trump’s rhetoric around creating a Bitcoin reserve fund suggests a bullish near-term outlook, but his track record leaves room for skepticism.
Harris enters the ring, giving crypto a “new handshake.” She promises less baggage than Trump and a heightened sense of clarity from the FIT21 Act, which could provide a golden path for Bitcoin’s future.
Who knows which candidate actually cares about Bitcoin? I guess we’ll see soon in 6 days (or more because electoral shenanigans are already taking place)
DON’T MISS: Hottest Undervalued Altcoins in November 2024
A Final Thought on Election Day Price Impacts
With the election approaching, Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors should prepare for the most crucial price event of the entire year – yes, more than the Bitcoin halving and rate reduction. Fed.
The interplay between policy outcomes and market reactions will create a game in which fortunes can change instantly. This goes beyond Bitcoin and will likely impact AI, technology and Tesla.
Don’t forget to check out the 99Bitcoin YouTube channel for our election coverage!
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