Now that tensions between Israel and Iran have temporarily reduced, analysts reflect their attention to the next major Bitcoin movement. Earlier in the week, the Bitcoin price briefly dropped below the $ 100,000 mark after Iranian missile strikes on American military bases in Qatar. Although the price has rebounded at $ 108,000 by Wednesday, the data on derivatives suggest that investors’ confidence can weaken. The question is now whether a deeper correction is on the horizon.
On Wednesday, the perpetual term financing rate of Bitcoin fell to its lowest in seven weeks, a rare decision, especially with price climbing. Under normal conditions, traders occupying long positions pay costs to maintain the leverage, so the negative rates indicate an accumulation of short positions.
Part of the change can be linked to a broader geopolitical and economic uncertainty. The United States trade war, revived in April, is now approaching key deadlines. An agreement with the euro zone expires on July 9, renewing the fears of increasing tensions. With more than 50 price changes since 2017, the unpredictable position of the Trump administration continues to fuel investor anxiety.
New data show that the United States’s trade deficit increased by 11% in May.
This occurs despite Trump’s claims that prices would considerably reduce the trade deficit. pic.twitter.com/nz0NSHREXY
– Factpost (@FactPostnews) June 26, 2025
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Economic concerns and the media shock of the AI evaluation add a pressure
The latest American GDP report showed a contraction of 0.5% from one year to the other in the first quarter, largely due to an increasing trade deficit. However, American actions with small capitalization are gathering, the Russell 2000 index has reached a four -month summit, while Bitcoin is struggling at $ 112,000. This divergence is frustrating for BTC bulls.
In addition, concerns about inflated assessments caused by AI’s media threw affect the feeling. Gartner analysts have warned that most “agental ia” projects are still experimental and often poorly used. As investors become more cautious, profits greater than $ 105,000 has become more likely.
A potential catalyst for a sale came from Bit Digital, a bitcoin minor listed on the stock market, which announced its intention to leave the BTC extraction and transfer reserves to ether. As of March 31, the company held 417.6 BTC and 24,434 ETH. This unexpected pivot increases the risk that other minors can follow, in particular with mining profitability reaching a hollow of two months.
The company has also disclosed a public offer of $ 150 million of $ 75 million ordinary shares at $ 2 each, aimed at using funds to buy more ether and focus on stain. After the announcement, Bit Digital’s shares fell almost 19% during the week, ending at $ 1.99 on Friday, including a one -day fall of 15%. Actions dropped to $ 1.86 before a modest recovery after opening hours.
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For the price of Bitcoin, two possible scenarios – but not a collapse
Macroeconomic trends still support long -term upper perspectives, including pressure on central banks to maintain a cowardly monetary policy, but short -term opposite winds remain. If minors start to liquidate and derivative data continue to reflect caution, Bitcoin could retain the level of $ 100,000 before making another boost.
- Poll Abrupt: The market often corrects suddenly without a long -term conviction once the pressure is complete.
- Continuation rally: If the rally obtains wider support, funding returns positive and prices resume climbing after a brief break.
Either we directly break this bull flag on Bitcoin today, or….
We get a small rinse and the upwards up
The path $ BTC Hold on, expected me to do aths soon
I went through the worst moments and still above $ 100,000, send it! pic.twitter.com/cbzoadq5uh
– mumin (@Mominsaqib) June 27, 2025
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Main to remember
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Negative financing rate: despite the rise in prices, Bitcoin short-circuited traders, which increases the risk of short pressure or decline.
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Geopolitical uncertainty: business war tensions and low growth in American GDP fuel prudent feelings through risk assets, including BTC.
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Rotation of minors to ETH: Digital bit of Bitcoin Pivot to Ethereum signals declining the confidence of minors and could trigger additional BTC sales pressure.
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Two probable results: the story suggests either a clear correction or a continuation rally once the funding has closely turned the derivatives.
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