Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiration frees up $1.35 billion, setting the stage for a crucial fourth quarter in the crypto market amid global trends.
Data from Greeks.Live details expiring options for Bitcoin and Ethereum, showing the prevailing sentiment and positioning among traders.
The expiration of 17,500 Bitcoin options reflects a complex sentiment landscape among investors. With a Put Call ratio of 0.75 and a maximum pain point set at $63,000, the numbers suggest a tilt towards a more protective stance among participants. Bitcoin has seen a sharp rise, climbing 1.39% over the past 24 hours to $61,167 at press time, a move potentially influenced by these expirations.
Meanwhile, the notional value of these options stands at $1.07 billion. As these options expire, focus remains on potential changes in strategy, particularly in response to global financial trends and the approach of the U.S. election.
October 4 Options Delivery Data
17,500 BTC options expired with a Put Call ratio of 0.75, a maximum pain point of $63,000, and a notional value of $1.07 billion.
119,000 ETH options expired with a Put Call ratio of 0.68, a maximum pain of $2,500, and a notional value of $280 million.…-Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 4, 2024
Bitcoin’s open interest momentum shows a lower PCR of 0.49, with 166,364 calls to 81,448 puts. As we approach another expiration date, October 25, where 21.84% of open interest is concentrated, market observers are anticipating potential spikes in volatility. This observation aligns with the broader expectation of a year-end rally, supported by historic fourth-quarter performance.
Ethereum Options Signal Bullish Push
Ethereum options, of which 119,000 contracts recently expired, reflect burgeoning confidence. The PCR here stands at 0.68, leaning toward calls, with a maximum pain threshold at $2,500 and a notional value of $280 million. The substantial open interest of 1,068,323 calls versus 535,556 puts for Ethereum reinforces the bullish outlook in contrast to Bitcoin’s cautious optimism.
This sentiment is even more pronounced for Ethereum’s next major deadline at the end of December, capturing 34.68% of total open interest. The concentration of positions around this date highlights traders’ expectations for Ethereum’s performance towards the end of the year.
Market context and strategic positioning
The broader market environment, marked by rising Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, contrasts with the relative underperformance of blockchain stocks. This gap highlights the unique challenges and opportunities within the crypto market. Despite current weaknesses, historical data suggests that the fourth quarter could present favorable conditions for building long-term positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Furthermore, given that all implied volatilities (IV) of major maturities maintain last year’s average levels and are expected to continue through the US election period, the coming weeks are considered opportune to prepare the ground in forecast of fourth quarter movements.
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