When it comes to the crypto market, the last seven months can be best summed up in one word: disappointing.
In March 2024, Bitcoin peaked at an all-time high around $73,000. This happened just after the first round of Bitcoin ETF approvals and just before the fourth halving (two catalysts that were expected to push cryptos higher). And since BTC peaked, cryptocurrencies have been stuck in a slow downward trend that simply refuses to stop.
Every time cryptocurrencies try to break out of this downtrend – and seem poised to finally restart the “boom cycle” – they fail.
It has been one disappointment after another. By our calculations, we have had three failed major breakout attempts since the March high – in May, July and August.
But now it looks like cryptos might finally break out… this time, for real.
The crypto rally has been coming for a long time
Of course, as we mentioned, the crypto market has remained stuck in a slow downtrend, repeatedly failing to break above resistance.
But is the glass half full here? Despite this frustrating movement, cryptos did not collapse.
It also appears that October is shaping up to be the eighth consecutive month in which Bitcoin has not moved more than 20%. In fact, over the last seven months, the monthly evolution of Bitcoin has been less than 20%. It has not increased or decreased by more than 20% in any month since February. If this trend continues into October, it will be the eighth consecutive month that BTC has seen such minimal movement.
This is really unusual for Bitcoin.
In fact, according to our research, Bitcoin has only once recorded eight consecutive months with a monthly change of less than 20%. This was in late summer 2015. From February to September 2015, BTC held around $250, never managing to break out or crash for eight straight months.
Then the escape happened. Bitcoin soared nearly 40% in October 2015. By the end of the following year, it had more than tripled.
In other words, the last and only other time Bitcoin remained this stable for this long was right before a big BTC breakout. And cryptos then saw a huge rally over the next 12 months.
We are cautiously optimistic that history will repeat itself this time.
And in fact, it seems that this breakout has already happened.
The last word
Bitcoin is currently on a run, currently up about 25% from its early September lows. This is Bitcoin’s biggest intraday rally since the cryptos peaked in early March.
Additionally, during this rally, Bitcoin retook its 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages – not once, but twice.
It’s important.
During previous “unsuccessful” breakout attempts in May, July, and August, Bitcoin recaptured major moving averages once and then lost them – each time.
In mid-May it recaptured the 50 and 100 day moving averages, lost them in mid-June and continued to decline.
In July, Bitcoin retook the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages in the middle of the month, lost them in early August, and continued to decline.
And in late August, Bitcoin retook all three moving averages, lost them a few days later and – you guessed it – continued to fall.
But here in the fall of 2024… Bitcoin recaptured all three major moving averages in late September… lost all three in early October… and is now retaking all three again.
This is the first time this has happened since March.
In other words, some technical signals are emerging to suggest that this Bitcoin rally – unlike all the others this year – is the “real deal.”
This of course means it might be time to buy crypto – and risky assets in general.
Crypto is a risky asset; perhaps even the riskiest of all. If it’s ready to soar, chances are all risk assets are ready to take off as well. This includes stocks.
Indeed, we believe the stock and crypto markets are potentially poised for a huge holiday rally in November and December.
Check out some stocks we like for this upcoming rally.
As of the date of publication, Luke Lango did not hold (neither directly nor indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.
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