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- Solana is expected to deploy Firedancer in early 2025, which could increase SOL’s value.
- However, there is a SOL unlock worth $2 billion from the FTX domain in March.
Solana (SOL) made a huge comeback in 2023 and 2024, rising from $8 to $264. However, analysts have a mixed outlook for the altcoin in 2025.
The bull camp, led by Mert Mumtaz, founder of Solana-based development platform Helius, believes that the new Firedancer validation client software and ETF approval could be key catalysts.
SOL’s bullish catalysts
For those unfamiliar, the Firedancer client is designed to process 1 million transactions per second (tps) under optimal conditions.
This will also improve the reliability of the network by having another validator client in case one encounters problems.
Interestingly, since Christmas Day, the market has become more optimistic about the approval of the SOL ETF in July 2025, as illustrated by Polymarket. odds going from 58% to 71%.
Source: Polymarché
Thus, the ETF prospect and Firedancer could increase the value of SOL. However, a token release of over $2 billion in March 2025 is also expected to be considered.
$2 Billion SOL Unlock Caution
As one of the major backers of the Solana chain, FTX’s bankruptcy in 2022 was the main reason why SOL crashed to $8.
As part of the bankruptcy restructuring, Galaxy Digital and other investors scooped up most of the defunct FTX domain’s SOL holdings at a discount.
However, they were to be locked for a while, and the first unlocking will take place in March 2025.
Source: Messari
Messari data showed that 11.2 million SOL tokens, worth over $2 billion, will be released in March 2025. This could induce selling pressure in the market.
Additionally, SOL underperformed Ethereum (ETH) in December, a trend that some experts believe could extend into the first quarter of 2025.
In fact, one analyst said that ETH could offer better gains than SOL, citing the weakening SOL/ETH ratio, which tracks the relative price performance of SOL versus ETH.
He said,
“Solana is superb, there’s no denying that, but the risk reward just isn’t there in 2025 compared to ETH.”
If SOL/ETH rises, SOL is said to outperform ETH and vice versa. At the time of writing, SOL/ETH has retreated towards the bottom of the channel range; a breach below could result in more capital flows from SOL to ETH.
Read Solana (SOL) Price Prediction 2025-2026
Source: SOL/ETH, TradingView
However, a decisive rebound in SOL/ETH above the channel lows could provide SOL with an additional lifeline in 2025.
In short, SOL’s 2025 outlook appears to be at a crossroads, with key bullish catalysts and headwinds.
