The current trajectory of the cryptography market can take place in a way that echoes the early stages of 2017, according to the CEO of Real Vision, Raoul Pal.
However, he believes This cycle could extend much further – potentially in mid -2026 – by moving macroeconomic dynamics and increasing institutional interest.
PAL pointed out that although Bitcoin has shown stable gains, he has not yet entered the explosive phase that many are waiting for. He attributes this to what he calls a delayed economic cycle. Using a proprietary model to assess global economic prospects, PAL noted that the cycle always seems to be in its infancy, suggesting that traditional and digital markets can have more space to operate.
One of the key factors influencing this extended calendar is the weakening of the US dollar. The Dollar index (DXY) has dropped almost 9% since the start of the year, currently located around 98.77. PAL pointed out that this decline could serve as a rear wind for Bitcoin, as the two assets tend to move reverse. In his opinion, a lower dollar improves not only the attraction of Bitcoin as a hedge, but also indicates the more loose monetary conditions to come.
PAL also made comparisons between the environment today and the beginning of 2020 rather than in 2021. At the time, Bitcoin plunged considerably before staging a spectacular recovery which lasted throughout the year. He suggested that the current market also feels “at an early stage”, real acceleration may still have been months, even years.
During a recent visit to the Middle East, Pal met several sovereign funds and left with a clear impression: regional governments are serious about blockchain and AI. According to him, countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar do not only invest in Bitcoin – they lay the foundations to integrate blockchain technology into national infrastructure.
While the cryptography market remains sensitive to global tensions and monetary policy signals, PAL estimates that wider macro-tendances point to a prolonged cycle rather than a short-term peak. Depending on its words, the crypto is likely to win, but not before undergoing more volatility and time. The next step, he says, will depend on continuous adoption and growing institutional commitment on developed and emerging markets.
With more than 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a designer of experienced content and a market analyst dedicated to the more accessible and understandable meeting to make the assets digital. He specializes in the rupture of complex trends in cryptography, the analysis of market movements and the production of insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and experienced investors. Alexander has been a reputation for providing a timely and precise analysis, while keeping an attentive eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm conviction that generalized education is essential to accelerate the global adoption of cryptography.
