With the publication of key economic data in February 2025, the adjustment of regulatory executives and the acceleration of technological iteration, the market continues to fluctuate in the tension between “optimists in the future” and “warning of pessimists”. This article analyzes the current market dynamics from a multidimensional perspective and explores its underlying logic.
Author: Revc, Golden Finance
Cryptography market and fission in February 2025
The cryptography market after Trump’s re -election is both a carnival of political dividends and a test field for endogenous risks. With the publication of key economic data in February 2025, the adjustment of the regulatory framework and the acceleration of technological iteration, the market continues to fluctuate in the tension between “optimists in the future” and “warning of pessimists”. This article analyzes the current market dynamics from a multidimensional perspective and explores its deep logic.
1. Policy change: the struggle between liberalization commitments and the risks of implementation
Optimistic narrative: the policy of “crypto utopia” of the Trump administration quickly advances, the president of the dry, Gary Gensler, resigns, the cumulative assets under management of the Bitcoin ETF exceeds 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock Ibit represents 45% ), the American Bitcoin reserve program is being legislative to the law in Texas and Pennsylvania, and the Bitcoin price exceeds $ 100,000.
Pessimists Question: The National Bitcoin reserve plan faces risks with high volatility. In the context of a federal deficit of $ 1.8 billion, resistance to coordination between the congress and the federal reserve can lead to a gap in the implementation of policies.
New developments in February:
– The SEC turns to “guided regulations”: the new president Paul Atkins promotes the ten main priorities of the working group on the cryptocurrency, clarifying the attributes of tokens titles and exploring the paths of conformity, but putting the accent on the repression of fraud.
– Fit21 Bill advanced: if it is adopted by the Senate, it will divide the regulatory borders between the SEC and the CFTC, but the republican senator Cynthia Lummis warned that “the bill must balance innovation and the protection of investors “.
2. Part of the piece: Political tokenization and risk of bubble
Optimistic logic: The market value of Trump Trump’s memes play exceeded $ 15 billion, and the volume of transactions on Solana chain has increased (100 million active addresses), attracting retail investors to enter and to extend the user base.
Pessimists are in cold eyes: Trump Coin fell by 60% after its launch, Melania Coin diverted funds, the former CTO of Coinbase denounced it as a “zero -sum lottery” and the leaders of industry warned that the burst of the bubble could repeat the collapse of FTX style confidence.
February verification:
– The proportion of samecoin transactions has increased: representing 11% of the negotiation volume of the 300 best cryptographic assets (excluding stages), but speculation has led to increased volatility of the market, with a liquidation amount of 24 hours of $ 346 million.
– Controversy of allocation of WLFI assets: WLFI has transferred $ 307 million in assets to Coinbase Prime and increased its ETH and WBTC assets to hide against volatility, but the chip exchange agreement been questioned to use political influence to lock liquidity.
3. Macroeconomic link: the double impact of non -agricultural data and the debt crisis
Optimists expect that in January 2025, the United States will add 143,000 non-agricultural jobs, lower than 169,000 expected, and the unemployment rate will drop from 4.1% to 4%. An hour after the release of non -agricultural pay data, Bitcoin returned to $ 100,000, but assigned by inflation problems and pricing threats, the three main American stock market indices fell overnight and Bitcoin returned at around $ 96,000.
Trump said at a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that “reciprocal prices” would be announced next week, which could degenerate the trade war. The chief strategist at the national level, Mark Hackett, stressed that the market was initially focused on the non -agricultural payroll, but Trump’s tariff announcement has become a new goal. Despite the slowdown in employment growth, a low unemployment rate can allow the federal reserve to maintain unchanged interest rates and the market expects only one drop in rate this year.
Pessimists warn: the American national debt exceeded 36 billions of US dollars, and the debt rating is faced with the risk of demotion. If the American debt crisis triggers a global liquidity crisis, the cryptography market can collapse simultaneously with risky assets.
Market resilience test in February:
– The game of hegemony of the US dollar: the US dollar index has increased to 108, and Bitcoin’s account as “digital gold” has been reinforced, but WLFI sold part of the ETH to lock Profits, exposing its speculative nature in the short term.
– Fed Policy contradictions: The Trump administration attempt to stimulate the economy by managing the 5 -year -old treasure yield is in conflict with Fed’s independence and exacerbates the uncertainty of the market.
4. Concerning technology and bubbles: Ethereum upgrade against the overvaluation of the VC evaluation
Optimists Cheer: Ethereum Pectra upgrade (expected for Q1-Q2 2025) aims to overall improve the performance and user experience of Ethereum. The upgrade will focus on improving the abstraction of accounts, the simplification of private keys management and the activation of more diverse transaction functions; Improve L2 compatibility, reduce transaction costs and improve efficiency; Optimization of the implementation mechanism, lowering the participation threshold and increase in the liquidity of the ETH; Improve EVM performance and improve the safety of smart contracts; And improve light customer support and increase the decentralization of the network. The objective of upgrading of Pectra is to make Ethereum easier to use, cheaper and safer, thus accelerating its mass adoption and consolidating its main position in intelligent contract platforms.
Analysis of pessimists: assessments of new public channels such as Ton et suis are inflated (Su sur FDV reaches 54 billion US dollars), homogeneous competition between Altcoins exposes the lack of innovation, and the Rwa Plume Network network promised 4, 5 billion dollars as active before assets before before the assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before the active ingredients before before the active ingredients before the active we before 4.5 billions of dollars as active before assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before the assets before us. Its launch, but its TVL costs only 64 million US dollars.
Technical milestones in February:
– Frax L2 is launched: Fraxtal takes care of Frxeth and Frax as a gas tokens, and the main protocols such as the finance of the curve have settled, but it is questionable to know if he can attract hundreds of millions US Dollars on TVL in the first month.
– Eigenlayer Rebating Boom: TVL exceeds $ 12.1 billion US dollars, but the 33% thong ceiling increases centralization concerns, and air incentives can exacerbate short -term speculation.
5. Regulations and international game: decentralized ideal and political manipulation of reality
Vision of Optimist: The IMCA EU framework comes into force and global regulatory convergence leads to compliance.
Pessimists reveal that the WLFI project underwent a loss of tens of millions of dollars, and the Trump family was accused of “using political influence to harvest profits”, decentralization becoming a vassal of power.
Geopolitical risks in February:
– Trump territorial dispute: he proposed radical problems such as “American Gulf”, which caused tensions in the international situation, and the long orders of the crypto market were liquidated by 282 million US dollars in 24 hours .
– The confrontation of the CBDC intensifies: Trump firmly resists the digital dollar, while China accelerates the promotion of the digital RMB, and the risk of fragmentation of the global payment system increases.
Conclusion: reshaping the value of the industry between enthusiasm and sobriety
The “Trump” era on the cryptography market is a prism which reflects the complex tangle of political power, capital game and technological innovation. Pessimists see the reefs in the repetition of policies, the bubble of the same and the debt crisis; Optimists adopt the dividends of institutional entry, the upgrade of Ethereum and the global expansion of capital.
Historical experience warns: real market winners must be dynamically balanced between the two perspectives
1. Remove yourself from “dependence on Trump”: politics is obviously not sustainable (the rate of realization of the president’s promises is only 31%), and the industry must go from “arbitration regulatory “to the construction of the intrinsic value of technology.
2. Resisting the “giant crypto baby mentality”: WLFI floating losses and VC bubbles reveal that release on external dividends will weaken anti-cyclical capacities, and only innovations of infrastructure and application can survive the bull and bear markets.
If the cryptography industry can take this opportunity to consolidate its technological bases during the period of relaxation of policies and remain sober in the midst of frantic speculation, it can feed the true miracle of cryptographic civilization in the middle of turbulence.
Author: 金色财经
This content only aims to provide market information and does not constitute investment advice.
