With the US presidential elections only A Today, the fever of political betting on Polymarket has gripped traders and political junkies.
Kamala Harris is gaining ground on Polymarket, the blockchain prediction oracle. His odds soared over the weekend, but today stood at 59-41 in favor of a Trump victory. This swing in Harris’ fortunes sparked a frenzy of market moves, hinting at ripple effects on the price of crypto and Bitcoin.
Understand why Polymarket is evolving for Kamala Harris
Besides running the New York City Marathon on Sunday, I haven’t closed a tab on my phone for Polymarket and its rival political betting company, Kalshi.
Polymarket allows users to buy stocks in potential outcomes, effectively betting on future events. Stocks pointing to a Harris victory jumped to more than 41 cents from 33 cents in late October, reflecting an upward trajectory in his chances.
In contrast, Donald Trump’s shares declined from 66 cents to 58 cents over the same period, indicating a narrowing gap between the two contenders.
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This rise in betting can be partially attributed to strategic hedging by traders.
Large-scale trades exceeding $10,000 suggest a mix of defensive trading and speculation about Harris’ growing chances.
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The polls are different this time for Trump
Trump’s rise is based on the assumption that he is still underestimated in the polls.
Just look at 2016; we don’t need to show that again, do we? Okay, we have to do this.
People are more willing than ever to admit that they like Donald Trump. At the time, everyone was too embarrassed or scared to admit anything positive about him.
If you liked Donald Trump at your job, you were an outcast.
If you posted about Donald Trump on social media, your friends would all block you.
The 2024 election remains a showdown, because this time around it’s unclear whether Trump is once again being underestimated or whether his support is accurate.
The same goes for Harris, who is counting on young women to vote for abortion rights.
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Crypto Market Reactions to Tomorrow’s US Presidential Election
The tightening of odds on Polymarket has not gone unnoticed in the crypto sphere. The volatile nature of the election has coincided with significant swings in Bitcoin prices, with liquidations reaching nearly $350 million as Bitcoin recently fell below $69,000 per CoinGecko.
As election anxiety reaches fever pitch, market unpredictability is the name of the game as traders hypothesize the radically different worlds that a Harris or Trump presidencies will place us in.
Bitcoin’s rollercoaster ride over the weekend — hitting nearly $73,300 then plunging — shows how nervous the crypto scene will be until after this election. Speculation runs wild; a Trump victory could push Bitcoin to $100,000, but a Harris victory could dampen that rise.
Be sure to follow our special 99Bitcoins election coverage Tuesday and Wednesday as we sift through the rubble of this 2024 election!
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