Historically, Bitcoin tends to have a rough time in September, as it often offers negative returns to traders. Despite this gloomy trend, current BTC price predictions are surprisingly bullish, predicting a 30% increase by October 1, 2024. But will these optimistic predictions last, or will Bitcoin have another rough ride in the coming weeks?
Bitcoin price has been unable to stay above $60,000. Bitcoin was recently rejected at the psychological level on August 27. It then underwent a rapid 10% correction over the next two days. This drop helped wipe out $140 million in leveraged Bitcoin long positions. Speculators are now joining the chorus of many observers who are asking: why can’t Bitcoin break above $60,000?
A mixture of measures
Despite this, on-chain evidence suggests otherwise. Santiment reported $4.2 billion in profits from cryptocurrency trading in August 2024. Despite substantial profit-taking, whale transactions (large transfers worth $100,000 or more) have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly four years, suggesting that large players are holding on to their cryptocurrencies in anticipation of price increases.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges has also fallen to its lowest level in months. Normally, when supply on exchanges starts to decrease, it’s a sign of bullishness. Fewer Bitcoins on exchanges means fewer people looking to sell them. Theoretically, this could push up its price.
But here’s the rub: Bitcoin Spot ETFs that were supposed to herald unprecedented institutional capital inflows have seen disappointing outflows. Some analysts are careful to note that ETF outflows are always a lagging indicator, as bearish sentiment after major news events usually shows up later. Yet such outflows only add more ambiguity to the mix, and traders are simply left wondering whether this promise of institutional demand will ever materialize or simply fade away.
Capital outflows from ETFs and traditional markets
Bitcoin’s current quagmire is also fueled by traditional finance. Concerns among traditional finance players have caused the cryptocurrency to be rejected at $61,000. The heavy reliance on tech companies, especially those focused on AI, has them worried. This has increased pessimism, in line with market expectations for a 100% interest rate cut in September.
Recent Bitcoin price movements have tracked the S&P 500 index, highlighting the increasingly correlated nature of cryptocurrencies and traditional markets. This could mean that Bitcoin’s future is tied to broader economic developments – for better or worse.
Bitcoin: Is it time to buy?
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $57,515, down 1.5% and 10.3% over a 24-hour and one-week period, according to data from Coingecko.
While the on-chain stats are promising, the general mood is far from optimistic. By October, CoinCodex’s latest Bitcoin price estimate predicts a 40% increase. That’s pretty significant. Their technical indicators, however, show a bearish attitude, and the Fear and Greed Index comes out as scary at 26.
Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView
